President Donald Trump once assured America’s farmers that his trade agenda would unlock new markets and produce better deals. For Ohio soybean growers, who previously shipped more than a billion dollars’ worth of product to China each year, those promises have not panned out.
Instead, they face familiar hardship as the administration leans on the same approach that defined Trump’s first term: aggressive tariffs, predictable retaliation, sinking commodity prices, and costly bailouts. The cycle is well known. Tariffs are imposed. Trading partners respond by targeting American agriculture. Prices collapse. Bankruptcies rise.
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Then come multibillion-dollar government payouts intended to offset the losses. Farmers say it is not a strategy but a setback. One of Trump’s earliest actions in 2017 was withdrawing the United States from the Trans-Pacific Partnership. Agriculture stood to gain the most from the deal, which would have opened key Asian markets long closed to American products.
Instead, farmers watched Canada and other countries secure preferential access. Tariffs on China followed. Beijing retaliated by hitting politically sensitive agricultural sectors. U.S. soybean exports to China plunged from $12 billion in 2017 to $3 billion in 2018 as buyers turned to Brazil and Argentina.
Ohio felt the decline sharply. The state’s soybean exports to China fell from $1.1 billion in 2016 to $158 million in 2018, an 86 percent drop. Sales never fully recovered and sank to $101 million in 2023. Through July 2025, Ohio farmers shipped just $14 million to China.
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To soften the blow, the administration issued nearly $28 billion in bailout payments between 2018 and 2019. By 2020, subsidies accounted for 40 percent of net farm income. A new deal with China announced in late October promised purchases of 12 million metric tons by year-end and 25 million metric tons annually through 2028.
But the commitments hinge on “market prices,” giving China freedom to walk away if American soybeans are not the cheapest option available. Early signs suggest that is exactly what is happening. After a brief flurry of orders, Bloomberg reported that Chinese buying has stalled.
Between Oct. 2 and Nov. 12, China purchased only two soybean shipments totaling 332,000 metric tons, far below the promised 12 million. U.S. beans still face a 13 percent tariff and cost more than South American supplies, leaving exporters with little leverage.
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Producers are also battling higher input costs as tariffs raise prices on pesticides, tractors, and machinery. On average, tariffs on major farm inputs now exceed 12 percent, up from 1 percent before the trade war. Even with some relief on fertilizer tariffs, the burden remains heavy.
The American Soybean Association testified that farmers expect losses of roughly $109 per acre this year, and farm bankruptcies in the first half of 2025 climbed 57 percent from the previous year. Another bailout, reported at $10 to $14 billion, is reportedly in the works.
But farmers insist they do not want government checks. They want a stable, enforceable trade policy and reliable access to international markets. Meanwhile, competitors like Brazil have expanded output by 40 percent since 2017, capturing market share once held by the United States.
For Ohio farmers, the stakes are clear. Without predictable trade policy and lower production costs, exports will continue to fall, foreign competitors will strengthen their foothold, and American agriculture will struggle to rebuild the market relationships it once relied on.
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