U.S. markets are closed for Thanksgiving, but S&P 500 futures showed little movement by midnight after the index ended Wednesday up 0.69 percent. That marked a fourth straight day of gains and left the benchmark only about 1 percent below its all-time high. Trading across Asia and Europe was calm as well, while India’s Nifty 50 reached a record.
As the December holiday stretch approaches, investors seem encouraged by signs that the Federal Reserve may cut interest rates at its final meeting of the year. The CME FedWatch futures index, which is known for its accuracy, now puts the odds of a cut to 3.5 percent at 85 percent.
Goldman Sachs captured the mood in a morning note to clients titled “Weaker Job Growth and Lower Inflation.” Those two trends are central to the Fed’s decision-making. If inflation cools while employment weakens, a rate cut becomes more likely. UBS echoed that view, telling clients the Fed may cut “a couple of times over the next six months.”
This optimistic backdrop has helped lift stocks even as the tech sector absorbs some unpleasant headlines. Nvidia has dropped nearly 6 percent this month amid growing concerns that enthusiasm for artificial intelligence has overheated. HSBC issued a sharp warning that OpenAI, a key Nvidia customer, may need another $207 billion in funding to operate through 2030.
MicroStrategy, Michael Saylor’s Bitcoin-focused company, has fallen 40 percent this month as a steep slide in cryptocurrency prices strains its balance sheet. According to the Financial Times, the company is now valued at less than the Bitcoin it holds.
Retail investors appear unbothered by these isolated problems. JPMorgan reported that individual investors bought a net $5.8 billion in stocks this week, up from $4.3 billion the prior week. “Retail sentiment quickly shifted this week—from deeply negative on Friday (first net selling day in more than 3 months, 8%ile), to exhilarated on Monday (largest buying day in 5 months, 92%ile),” analysts Arun Jain and colleagues wrote.
Another boost comes from corporate buybacks. Companies have repurchased $1 trillion worth of stock in the past year, according to MorningStar.
Taken together, these factors have strengthened expectations that the S&P 500 may make another run at its all-time high before the Fed’s next rate-setting meeting on December 9 and 10.
Here is how major global markets looked early today:
• S&P 500 futures were flat at midnight after a 0.69 percent gain in the last session.
• STOXX Europe 600 was unchanged.
• The FTSE 100 gained 1.23 percent.
• Japan’s Nikkei 225 rose 1.85 percent.
• China’s CSI 300 was flat.
• South Korea’s KOSPI added 0.66 percent.
• India’s Nifty 50 climbed 0.039 percent.
• Bitcoin increased to $91.6K.
READ NEXT
- Whoopi Goldberg Walks Off The View Table, Saying Producers ‘Threw That Admiral Right Under the Bus’
- Instagram CEO orders staff back five days a week in push for a ‘Winning Culture’
- Easy DIY Home Improvement Projects for Beginners
- ‘We’re Paying for Our Own Vote’ Ranchers Blame Trump Decisions for the Bankruptcies Hitting Their Communities
- Jon Stewart Mocks Trump’s MRI Story: “That’s Not Physically Possible”