As talk about the 2028 presidential race starts to heat up, Vice President JD Vance is widely seen as Donald Trump’s most likely successor at the top of the Republican ticket. But even before that race officially begins, Vance is facing a growing problem that could complicate his path to the White House, especially with Latino voters who helped power Trump’s return in 2024 and now appear to be pulling away.
New data from the Pew Research Center paints a tough picture for the administration. Seventy percent of Latino voters disapprove of Trump’s job performance. 65% oppose his immigration policies, and 61% say his economic approach has made their lives harder. Pew says these are the worst numbers it has recorded among Latino voters since it began tracking their political views in 2008. That marks a sharp turn from the last election, when Trump won 48 percent of the Latino vote, a big jump from the 28 percent he received in 2016.
Republican strategist Mike Madrid says the shift comes down to money. “It’s all economics, affordability and cost of living,” Madrid told Newsweek. “Consumer confidence is now at a 50 to 70 year low. Nineteen fifty one was the last time it was this bad.”
Madrid argued that current policies are making things worse, not better. “He’s pursuing really bad, ill-advised economic policies. The chances of Republicans turning this around in a year aren’t likely. Possible, yes. Would I bet on it No.”
Pew’s numbers back that up. 63% of Latinos say their personal finances are only fair or poor. Nearly half say they have struggled to pay for basics like food, housing, or health care. While 47 percent remain hopeful about the coming year, a striking 78% rate the overall U.S. economy negatively.
Immigration is another growing concern. Pew found that 71 percent of Latino voters think the administration is being too aggressive with deportations. More than half worry they or someone close to them could be detained, and one in five say they have changed daily routines because they fear being asked to prove their immigration status.
That frustration could be a problem for Vance nationally, but the math still favors Republicans in some key states. In Texas, Trump and Vance won by nearly 14 points in 2024. Latinos made up about a quarter of the electorate. Even if Republicans lost 10 points of Latino support in 2028, the GOP would still likely win the state comfortably. Florida shows a similar pattern, where a comparable shift would narrow but not erase the Republican advantage.
The bigger question for Vance is whether he can reconnect with Latino voters the way he did in 2024. “Latino voters didn’t become more conservative,” Madrid said. “They responded to an economic message that made sense to them.”
That message once worked in Vance’s favor. His story of rising from poverty and his focus on working-class issues resonated with many voters. Florida Representative Maria Elvira Salazar summed it up at an Axios House event, saying, “Vance was able to escape poverty in a very difficult rural area in Ohio. We Hispanics, we can look up to him and say, ‘Well if he did it, we can too.’”
Recent elections suggest warning signs for Republicans. In Miami this week, Democrat Eileen Higgins won the mayor’s race in a landslide with strong Latino support, including in traditionally conservative areas. In New Jersey, Governor-elect Mikie Sherrill also regained ground with Latino voters.
Polling shows the trend is real. Latino disapproval of the Trump administration is now at a decade high. JD Vance is left trying to defend administration policies while not pushing swing voters away. So far, that balance is proving hard to strike.