A viral rumor making the rounds in early November 2025 claimed that Bank of America had found “overwhelming evidence” that President Donald Trump’s tariffs were driving up prices for American consumers. At first, some thought it was another piece of social media exaggeration — but this time, it turned out to be true.
The claim started spreading on X, where users posted the quote along with a shocked-face emoji. It soon appeared on Reddit and Facebook, including a post from Occupy Democrats, which said the tariffs had “skyrocketed prices.” The source for all the buzz was a November 3rd Business Insider article reporting that analysts at Bank of America had released a note on October 31st confirming the impact of tariffs on inflation.
There is overwhelming evidence’ tariffs have raised consumer prices, says Bank of America
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In the research note titled “Tariffs: Passing the Buck to the Consumer,” economists Stephen Juneau and Aditya Bhave from Bank of America’s research team wrote there was “overwhelming evidence that tariffs have pushed inflation higher for consumers.” They explained that while tariffs were meant to target foreign producers, it was actually U.S. shoppers who ended up footing most of the bill.
“The data show that prices of goods have risen since October 1, 2024, especially for imported goods,” the economists wrote, adding that their findings left “no uncertainty” about the role tariffs have played in pushing inflation higher.
Their analysis estimated that the tariffs had added between 30 and 50 basis points — that’s 0.3 to 0.5 percentage points — to the increase in the “core PCE” index, a key measure of inflation that excludes food and energy costs. The term “pass-through” refers to how much of the tariff cost is passed on to consumers, and according to Bank of America, the answer is: most of it.
In simpler terms, Americans are paying more for everyday products — from electronics to household goods — not because companies are raising prices for profit, but because tariffs have made imported materials more expensive.
“The effective tariff rate is likely to rise further, as the full effect of the measures announced by the administration in recent months sets in,” Juneau and Bhave warned.
Their findings matched what other economists have been saying for months. Research teams at Yale University’s Budget Lab and Harvard University’s Pricing Lab have also been tracking how tariffs are driving inflation. Yale’s analysis found that by June 2025, prices for core goods were nearly 2% higher than they would have been if pre-tariff trends had continued.
Meanwhile, Harvard’s Pricing Lab published an updated paper in late October 2025 showing that the overall annual inflation rate was 2.9% in August — but without tariffs, it would have been 2.2%. That means tariffs added about 0.7 percentage points to consumer inflation.
In short, economists across major institutions agree: the tariffs that were supposed to protect American industries have ended up costing American consumers more at the checkout. And according to Bank of America’s latest warning, the price hikes may only get worse as the new wave of trade measures takes full effect.